Stocks & Bonds Are Getting Monkeyhammered Again…
Yesterday’s market turmoil is re-awakening in early trading after the overnight hawknado from central banks around the world (except Turkey).
US equities are extending losses, now below overnight lows with Nasdaq down almost 4% from the FOMC statement…
Bonds are getting hammered again but this time it’s the long-end that is feeling the pain as the 30Y yield explodes 13bps…
At the short-end, 2Y yields are up around 6bps, back to yesterday’s high yields…
Finally, on the longer term picture, SpotGamma suggests traders should continue to key off of the MOVE Index as the major macro indicator, and that metric remains near all time highs.
Additionally that chasm between bond vol and equity vol (i.e. VIX, VVIX, SKEW/SDEX) remains extremely wide.
Nothing says this spread has to collapse, however we remain of the opinion that equities cannot hold a material, sustainable rally (5-10% equity rallies have been disappearing at lightning speed) until that MOVE index shifts back down <=100.
As long as the MOVE remains this elevated, tail risk remains elevated, and overall volatility likely remains high.
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