JPMorgan, Goldman React To Powell’s Hawkish Comments
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March 7, 2023 8:26 pm
Tags: comments, goldman, hawkish, joshwho, jpmorgan, Media, News, powell’s, react, ZeroHedge
Categories: JoshWho News news media US News ZeroHedge
Powell’s remarks today led to the biggest jump in the dollar since November…
… and a1.5% selloff in SPX, reversing almost of the gains from last Friday’s rally, and with eminis now back below 4000 all three CTA “threshold” levels are on the verge of being broken to the downside.
The reason for the market spasm is that the terminal rate was repriced 16bp higher to 5.63% as Powell put 50bp back on table.
As JPM’s chief economist Michael Feroli explains (in a delightfully titled note available to pro subs), the Fed chair did so by once again jeopardising the Fed’s credibility: “whereas the plan prior to that data round was to hike by 25bps until there was more evidence of disinflation, Chair Powell indicated today that they are prepared to throw out that playbook if the February data don’t reverse some of the January strength.” In other words, yet another painful U-turn by a Fed which after ripping up the forward guidance book, is clearly even more clueless now what is going on.
To JPM’s head of market intel, Andrew Tyler, Powell’s speech today indicates that the “Fed will heavily depend on near-term data for upcoming rates decisions. With January’s macro data mostly printing on the hawkish side, NFP Friday and CPI next Tuesday are the most critical catalysts for Fed’s decision between 25bp and 50bp. Keep in mind that the Fed will start its blackout period this Saturday so CPI will be released during the blackout period, so data itself will be more impactful in absence of guidance from Fedspeeches.” And also recall that last June, having set market expectations for a 50bps hike, the Fed was reduced to using its WSJ mouthpiece, Nick Timiraos, to alert the market 75bps was coming.
Some more from Feroli’s full note:
Bottom line: the Fed is looking to accelerate its tightening just as the US economy plaxicos itself, with a debt ceiling crisis on top. Not for nothing Michael Hartnett said that the bear market will end with a credit event in the second half.
And until we wait for the next collapse, here is an excerpt from JPM’s ultra bearish technician Jason Hunter (full note also available to pro subs) on how Powell’s comments could impact the market in the coming days:
That takes care of JPMorgan, what about Goldman?
In his market wrap analysis, Goldman trader John Flood writes that “Powell said the US central bank is prepared to increase the pace of hikes if data warrant, and sees the ultimate peak Fed rate likely to be higher than expected. In prepared testimony before the Senate Banking Committee, he said the process of getting inflation back to 2% “has a long way to go and is likely to be bumpy.”
The bank’s strategist and economist Zach Pandl adds that “this adds more vol to Friday’s jobs data–on a huge print there
is a possibility market rushes to price 50bp for next meeting.”
And here is Goldman trader Michael Nocerino on today’s market reaction:
Putting it all together, Goldman chief economist Jan Hatzius added 25bps to his forecast:
Much more in the full notes available to professional subs.