May 31, 2023 8:20 am
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ECB Rate-Hike Odds, Euro Tumble After German Inflation Slumps

 Germany joined its major euro-zone peers in reporting a dramatic slowdown in inflation as both regional and national CPIs all tumbled to 15-month lows with the headline (preliminary) May German CPI down to 6.1% (from 7.2% in April)

The retreat came as fuel and heating-oil costs tumbled, and a cheap, nationwide public-transport ticket was introduced.

This follows reports this week that already showed inflation rates dropped more than anticipated in France and Spain, with prices in the latter rising by just 2.9% – the weakest in almost two years. While easing too in Italy, the extent of the retreat there was smaller than analysts expected.

“I could not say that the victory is there so far,” ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said earlier Wednesday in Frankfurt.

“I think that we are on the correct trajectory and we have to look very carefully at the evolution of core inflation.”

The euro fell to two-month lows on the inflation prints…

Source: Bloomberg

As rate-hike expectations from The ECB declined…

Source: Bloomberg

“There’s a fairly consistent line with the euro-area CPI numbers: it is coming down,” Paul Donovan, chief economist at UBS Global Wealth Management, said on Bloomberg TV. “This whole idea of stickiness, of inflation sticking around, is really being blown out of the water. Interestingly, we’re also getting this confirmed in the regional data in the US.”


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