Data Dependency When The Data Direction Is Known
By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities
This week we had the ECB raise rates 75 bps, but Lagarde stuck to the data dependency line. Consensus (outside of the ECB) for Europe is recession with runway energy prices.
Powell, at the CATO institute interview (i have to admit, I’m not completely sure what that was all about) tried to sound as hawkish as possible, but wasn’t that convincing. He seemed very focused on anchoring inflation expectations and highlighting mistakes made when the Fed got behind the curve, but all of that can get re-spun at this meeting and by speakers after the meeting.
I see inflation rolling over already. I suspect they’ve already done too much, but for now there are so many clear signs that inflation is retreating rapidly, that the data dependency looks like an early stop to the hawkish actions.
Treasury secretary Yellen spoke, but few seemed to care (the central bank powers dwarf – no pun intended – anyone else’s for markets and the economy, at least for now).
The UK started the “transfer” of energy risk away from individuals and small businesses to the government. Nothing like the risk assumption we saw during Covid, but if this is an inkling of what the rest of Europe will do, European stocks and credit spreads should flourish (i particularly like EU banks).
For now embrace the risk rally, especially in Europe and even (eyes closed, nose plugged) in crypto as markets price in that we are near the end of hawkishness, based on expected weak data.
Ultimately, I think we have already pushed too far, that the bad news will be bad, that before year end we will be worried far more about recession and lower prices than inflation, but for now, ride the bad news is good news wave (and own rate products).
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