Bonds & Stocks Bid Despite Rate-Hawknado Ahead Of J-Hole Pow-Wow
Another wave of hawkish FedSpeak today (George, Bostic, Harker, and Bullard in increasingly ominous policy terms) prompted further tightening in STIRs…
…but stocks (once again) just shrugged it off as hope remains that Powell punts tomorrow…
If there is still anyone left believing that Powell will pivot tomorrow, they are in cloud cuckoo-land – he would have to completely reject the words of at least six Fed presidents in the last two days who have expressed nothing but ‘higher for longer’ rates as a possibility.
Will Powell go ‘full Leeroy Jenkins’ on the market?
The market is pricing a peak terminal rate for this cycle at around 3.79% in March 2023 before rate-cuts begin (but all the FedSpeak today signaled that was unlikely – more aggressive hikes then pause was the narrative, not a hike and cut flip-flop)…
Why are they desperate? Simple – financial conditions are now ‘easier’ than when The Fed actually started ‘tightening’…
The Dow lagged on the day (thanks to weakness in Salesforce) but had a positive performance while Nasdaq and Small Caps led the pre-Powell surge. In the last hour, the “we know something you don’t know” panic-buying accelerated into the close. Futures were bid aggressively at both the EU cash open and the US cash open…
“Most Shorted” stocks surged once again today…
Very strong 7Y auction (after ugly auctions earlier in the week) helped extend gains in bond land today… but the short-end (2Y) dramatically underperformed…
The 10Y Yield dropped back near 3.00% today…
All of which flattened the yield curve (2s30s) dramatically…
The dollar extended yesterday’s slide, but was bid into and across the European open (like it has been for the last few days)
Bitcoin chopped around today to close practically unchanged around $21500…
Oil prices slipped lower today…
European NatGas continued its explosion higher, now trading at a stunning $533 per barrel of oil equivalent…
And some more context, Germans are paying the equivalent of $1200/barrel of oil for their electricity demands (1Y ahead)…
Interestingly, the discount for Russian (Urals) crude below Brent is tightening…
Gold managed modest gains on the day with overnight gains being dumped as US opened…
Finally, Bloomberg reports that a measure of aggregate profit margins improved in the period to 15.5% — the most since 1950 — from 14% in the first three months of the year.
This won’t last… unless government intervention has finally killed capitalism.
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